Telecom Ministry of India is
gearing for one of the biggest auction of spectrum in coming months and
expecting to mop-up more than $100 Bn. How good to hear that government is
going to garner revenue which will enable them to reinvest in government backed
project to kick start the Indian economy.
Indian Telecom service providers
are already reeling under more than $70 Bn in debt and recommended base price
of very efficient 700Mz is so high that it is enough to bankrupt established
players of the ecosystem.
Telenor tried to re-established
itself post cancellation of their license post Indian Telecom Department
identified Telecom Scam and now operating in 6 Circle of India and 4 out of 6
are non tech savvy states and only 25% of its total user base are Internet
user base.
Telenor already ordered
infrastructure in order to launch 4G services but they cannot sustain heavy
competition in upcoming months and years until unless they are present across
all circles. Any user at any point of time prefer service provider offer
services across all circle. Many of the low hanging fruits who wants to
experience 4G may latch onto Telenor 4G network and subsequently move out
another service provider using Mobile Number Portability ( MNP)
Telenor head quarter and Indian
management quadrant on multiple occasion indicated that the recommended base price
of spectrum in different band are too high and will not help service provider
to even achieve RoI.
I believe that Telenor HQ will
prefer to quit India and take one time Goodwill and focus on their remaining
userbase where they have high ARPU user base. I strongly believe that it will
be the first causality of upcoming auction of spectrum
