India 4G User Acquisition & Retention - Who is Suffering at the End

Reliance Jio entry into Indian Telecom sector started creating scenario wherein incumbent operators are at the spot.

Latest in the saga, Reliance Jio again approached TRAI and accused Airtel,Vodafone and Idea for blocking users who wants to port out of their existing service providers to Reliance Jio network.  The number involved in total is less than 200 and that shows Reliance Jio commitment towards their potential user.

At the same time, incumbent cannot let the user port out of the network till the guideline of the Mobile Number Portability set by TRAI.

Indian incumbent operators faced the music of MNP and how end user exploited it in 2012 to 2014 era  wherein user took the service of one operator with goodies and then ported out to another one post exhausting the goodies.

In 2012 to 2014 era challengers like Telenor  and others used MNP in their favor and acquire millions of user but unfortunately most of the user were low ARPU user.

It is surprising that based on the reports published in leading new paper not mentioned  Aircel, Reliance Communication and other which in my point bring me to a conclusion that Reliance Jio is only facing problems with three leading incumbent operator. It would be great to know about BSNL user requesting for porting out and it's status.

The real test of porting in and out using MNP will show its class post Reliance Jio start commercial service. Till Dec 31 st 2016 most of the Indian mobile users will try to misuse Reliance Jio service as it is free. I am also delighted that this time around Reliance Jio is so focused about consumer but at the end consumers are suffering. If any legitimate user trying to port out then they should not be used as dice to play competitive strategy. It's a common practice by operator to put across many clause as some of the end user through their past act forced incumbent operators to put across multiple clause related to exit.

For few, mass is suffering and both incumbent and Reliance Jio should solve it the way they did it with PoI

Reliance & Aircel Potential Merger - Opportunity For Airtel, Vodafone and Ideacellular

For the last 6 months, there is buzz in the market place that Reliance Communications and Aircel is joining hand to fight with big players as well as face Reliance Jio Onslaught collectively. Both the organization is reeling under huge debt and constantly losing market share. The fund constraints also put them in tight spot to innovate new products in  order to differentiate themselves.

As per the industry news, both the organization will own 50% each and company will have thousands of Crores of loans on their books. If the merger goes through then there will be major realignment will happen in both the organization and biggest loser will be employees of both the organization.

On the market competition side, both the organization is very confident that they will be better placed to ward off any competition including Reliance Jio and will gain market share. They are also claiming that their revenue market share will grow from the current level of around 12%.

In my point of view, Reliance Communications failed to increase their wireless business for the last 3 to 4 years with stagnated revenue but their debt level went beyond their control. Reliance Communications is also well known for their poor customer care.

Most of the partner working with Reliance Communications also face issues in integration due to legacy network and innovation is completely missing. The recent move by Reliance Communications to force millions of user to port on to 4G dented their image.

If the merger goes through then there will be distraction within management level of both the organizations as both the parties will be busy in realignment of business, product line, regulatory etc and that will open an opportunity of window for incumbent operators like Airtel, Vodafone and Ideacellular .

Reliance and Aircel on collective basis is having more than 60 million data user as well as around 7 to 8 Millions of prepaid userbase.

I also would like to point out that many user still remember the very poor service offered by Reliance when Mr.Mukesh Ambani launched telecom service with number of complaint on billing side and that is the reason that i have not considered Reliance Jio in the race.

All of us are talking about Reliance Jio impact on Airtel or Vodafone or IdeaCellular but missed to identify the opportunity lying in front of them. Read More

TRAI Current Feeler on Point of Interconnect and Termination Charges - One Gaining, Rest Loosing

Based on the reports published in Economic Times, TRAI offered their intentions clear by sending out feeler that they are not going to allow Incumbent Operator such as Airtel , Vodafone, Ideacellular and others to ask for higher termination fee. They also indicated that Incumbent operators must provide required number of point of interconnect to Reliance Jio.

If I am not wrong, TRAI few days back released an statement that they recommended the concerned parties to resolve the concerns through talks. They also pointed out that in case both the parties will fail to come to common agreement then only TRAI is going to intervene.

Since Economic Times came out with the report and if I believe on that report then I want to ask TRAI very simple query that " How TRAI came to conclusion that talks will yield no result". " Why they are not focusing on revenue loss which will be incurred by Government given the impact of low per minute realization.

At the end its my assessment and i might be wrong that India is a place where the single agenda of regulators are to squeeze out player. Regulators must realize that any degradation of Incumbent mobile operator financial health means job losses, more NPA, impact on IT sector, Impact on Startups and loss of government revenue and more importantly another recession.

Its a right saying in India that If I am happy then rest happy; If I am sad then rest should be sad. Dear regulators please wake up...

TRAI Failed Attempt to Bridge the Differences Between Reliance Jio and Airtel,Vodafone,Ideacellular, and Other

Post lots of mud slugging on each other, TRAI directed Reliance Jio and Incumbent Operators like Airtel, Vodafone, Ideacellular and Others to sit across the table and make a way to break the impasse on point of interconnect. Based on the report, Tcc to show the world that they tried and directed both the parties to settle the issues through talks. They also pointed out that failure on agreement will force TRAI to act which will be enforced. TRAI made a path clear for both the parties to waste another two months in discussion and subsequent to that another month for TRAI to release their order which will be challenged by the Operator in any circumstances.

Great work done by TRAI.

Idea Upcoming Result - Competition and Finance Cost May Dent Profitability

Idea is going to release their result and it is widely expected that revenue, EBITA, EBIT and APRU will be scrutinized by the analyst community. Idea debt level went up due to spectrum buyout and heavy capex to rollout 4G network to compete with Incumbents like Airtel, Vodafone and upcoming Reliance Jio. It is expected that minute and data usages per user will be higher but it will be interesting to see the realization. The finance cost will impact the overall profitability. All will be interested to hear from the management about their plan around 4G to fend off hotly talked about competition with Reliance Jio. For the next two to three quarter, Idea will be spending heavily in advertisement and high ARPU based userbase to secure their main source of revenue.

For Investors, it is advisable to be stay away from the equity delivery or F&O market when it comes of Idea Cellular.

It is also recommended that Investor should not miss the chance if equity price goes down to INR 80 in next 30 days and hold it for more than 12 months to expect handsome return.

Disclaimer : Consult your financial advisor before investing